Uncertainty Can Power Expert SystemsUncertainty Is A Real World ProblemUncertainty can powerfully assist Expert Systems to diagnose problems by ignoring the “If, then..” routine and by following an elimination algorithm. This website suggests that intuition of the human mind follows such a routine. From its early beginnings, the Artificial Intelligence community sought to understand human intelligence by building computer programs, which exhibit intelligent behavior. AI researchers assume rightly that intelligence is essentially a problem solving ability. But, they make the mistake of assuming that such problems have clear logical, or mathematical solutions. Unfortunately for them, problems in the real world do not present clear cut answers. The diagnosis of a disease does not follow simple logical paths; nor can it be calculated. If a patient has a group of symptoms, then she has a particular disease. But many of these symptoms are shared by other diseases. Occasionally, some of these symptoms may also be absent for the disease. The real world presents the problem of uncertainty. The Concept Of Expert Systems  The AI community was faced with the problem of ambiguity. In many fields, knowledge was found to be vague. Only the specialist knew when a particular symptom was applicable. There were experts in each field, with extensive prior knowledge. The AI objective was to transfer the logic of the decisions in the minds of experts into diagnostic programs. Expert Systems were expected to yield intelligent answers to the problems in the world. Expert Systems managed goal oriented problem solving tasks including diagnosis, planning, scheduling, configuration and design. In every case, the AI community avoided the blurred boundaries of problems. Rule based Expert Systems Expert Systems operated on certainties. One method of knowledge representation was through “If, then...” rules. When the “If” part of a rule was satisfied, then the “Then” part of the rule was concluded. If a particular symptom was present, then a specific disease could be selected. But knowledge was sometimes factual and at other times, vague. Factual knowledge had clear cause to effect relationships, where conclusions could be drawn from concrete rules. Pain was one symptom of a disease. If the disease always exhibited pain, then pain pointed to the disease. But vague and judgmental knowledge presented a problem, when pain was present only occasionally. Such ambiguity was useless information for rule based Expert Systems. Many diseases also shared many symptoms. So, Expert Systems conducted back and forth searches, till they located a particular disease, which presented all the symptoms. The Exponential Growth Problem The back and forth searches of the Expert Systems faced problems with large databases. In theory, the search process took twice the time for each newly added symptom. If a search for a single symptom takes 1 second, 2 symptoms require 2 seconds and 12 symptoms will take more than 4 HOURS! Any doctor can evaluate thousands of symptoms within milliseconds. But this problem can be solved if the whole database is evaluated on an elimination basis. Any diseases, which are clearly unrelated to the presence, or absence of particular symptoms are eliminated from the database. If a symptom is present, all diseases, which positively do not present the symptom are eliminated. If a symptom is absent, all diseases, which positively present the symptom are eliminated. This process can swiftly evaluate any reasonable database and effectively handle uncertainty. Elimination Benefits From Uncertainty The AI community tried to solve the ambiguity problem by suggesting a statistical, or heuristic analysis of uncertainty. The possibilities were represented by real numbers or by sets of real-valued vectors. The vectors were evaluated by means of different “fuzzy” concepts. The components of the measurements were listed, giving the basis of the numerical values. Variations were combined, using methods for computing combination of variances. The combined uncertainty and its components were expressed in the form of “standard deviations.” Uncertainty was given a mathematical expression, which was hardly useful in the diagnosis of a disease. Instead of delivering a mathematical formula as diagnosis, ambiguity can become powerfully useful information for other members of the database. Pain may be only occasionally present for some diseases, but will be certain for some and completely absent for many others. The search process eliminates the "certain" diseases. Only an elimination routine can take advantage of uncertainty. Intuition Uses An Elimination Process The human mind does not compute mathematical relationships to solve problems. The mind knows that a particular symptom points to a possibility, because it uses intuition, a process of elimination, to instantly identify patterns. Vague information is powerfully useful to an elimination process, since it eliminates myriad other possibilities. If the patient lacks pain, all diseases, which always exhibit pain, are eliminated. Diseases, which sometimes exhibit pain are retained. Further symptoms help identification from a greatly reduced database. The final choice is easier from a smaller group. Uncertainty can be powerfully useful for an elimination process. Elimination Can Deliver A Successful Expert System Walter Freeman, the famous neurobiologist outlined the process: “The cognitive guys think it's just impossible to keep throwing everything you've got into the computation every time. But, that is exactly what the brain does. Consciousness is about bringing your entire history to bear on your next step, your next breath, your next moment.” An elimination algorithm can evaluate the whole database, eliminating every context which does not fit. This algorithm has been proved. It has powered Expert Systems which speedily recognize a disease, identify a case law or diagnose the problems of a complex machine. These systems are swift, holistic, and logical. If several parallel answers are presented, as in the multiple parameters of a power plant, recognition can even be instant. For the mind, where millions of parameters are simultaneously presented, real time pattern recognition is practical. And elimination is the key, which can conclusively handle uncertainty, without delivering a perplexing statistical calculations as the diagnosis. The Artificial Intelligence Disadvantage The handicap for Artificial Intelligence is that it lacks the real tools needed to succeed. The Evolution Of Computers The Evolution Of Computers. The next stage in the evolution of computers is pattern recognition, leading to true artificial intelligence. Back To Top Return from Uncertainty Can Power Expert Systems To Effective Mind Control Home Page E-Mail Me Your Comments! |
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Effective Mind Control
Mind Control Tips
Steps to reach your highest RI level of consciousness.
A Self Improvement Plan
A life plan for effective stress relief.
Developing Self awareness
The process can take the sting out of your fears and frustrations.
Eugene Gendlin Focusing
About Eugene Gendlin's steps to achieve self awareness.
Who Am I?
The great sage Ramana Maharshi advised his pupil to ask this question.
How To Relax At Work
Steps to help you to relax quickly while at work.
Breathing Exercises
Conscious breathing stills disturbing emotions.
Visceral Reaction
An exercise to subdue the impact of a visceral reaction.
Mindfulness Exercises
Your ability to recognize patterns can improve the quality of your life.
Coping With Stress
How to "Accept the things you cannot change."
About Will Power
Will power has nothing to do with a free will.
The Startle Response
On dealing with unwanted surprises in life.
Your Hidden Emotions
Your Hidden Emotions
How to uncover and regulate your hidden emotions.
When Life Has No Meaning
Finding the meaning of life has little to do with your happiness.
Overcoming Shyness
It is all about being comfortable with people.
Developing Intuition
Enrich your life by gaining timely and helpful insights.
A Cure For Boredom
Permanently cure the boredom malady.
The EFT Way To Be Happy
Be rid of your bad feelings through acupressure.
I Am So Sad
Not a mild, momentary unhappiness, but afeeling of intense grief.
Make Life Meaningful
Can 15 year old Angie make life meaningful?
What Causes Fear
A potential for pain, or an unrecognizable event, causes fear.
Dealing With Severe Guilt
A few years back, Ann swung out on to the outer lane to overtake...
Controlling Anger
Achieve a measure of control and your mind will not revert.
On Swallowing Your Pride
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The Power Of Gratitude
While it brings a sense of well-being, is it justified?
Social Comparison
A relentless and often troubling drive within you.
Overcoming Low Self Esteem
Learn to rid yourself of a painful habit.
Respect
Respect is a herd emotion, which helps you to jump the queue.
What Is Trust?
Trust is a positive emotion, which makes people rely on others.
Contempt
The word "contempt" implies either disgust, or disrespect. The two are different.
The Power Of Expectation
Hidden expectations become self-fulfilling prophesies
Pessimist To Optimist
Switch off pessimism and improve your health.
A View Of The Mind
How The Mind Works
Pattern recognition explains the brilliant wisdom of the mind.
The Triune Brain
The three guiding objectives of nature's control systems.
Consciousness & Soul
Your consciousness occasionally mirrors your soul.
Levels of consciousness
Evolution created different levels of consciousness.
What Causes Emotions?
The neural signals, which control behavior.
The Secret Of Intuition
Intuition is a pattern recognition algorithm.
The Subconscious Mind
The troubling drives within your subconscious mind.
What Is Intelligence?
A 2004 Nobel Prize refers to the central secret of human and animal intelligence.
Human Memory Capacity
About the immense capacity of human memory.
The Olfactory Sense
The olfactory sense has used a specific coding principle for hundreds of millions of years.
How Do We Remember?
Nerve cells recognize your current emotion and recall related images.
Long Term Potentiation
LTP is not the basis for human memory, but merely assists memory retrieval.
Behavior Pattern Recognition
Enables the mind to understand events.
Memory Research
Science has not focused on its huge capacity and precision.
Amygdala & Emotions
The amygdala triggers your emotions faster than your conscious awareness.
Insular Cortex & Social Emotions
The insular cortex grants you self awareness, empathy and social discipline.
Mirror Neurons
How can a group of neurons generate a subtle experience like empathy?
Stress Relief & Attention
Focusing attention inwards is the secret of effective mind control.
Theory of Mind
The knowledge, which enables you to predict and manipulate the behavior of others.
Meditation Benefits
Understand why it works.
A Theory Of Motivation
Motivation levels are regulated by neural pattern recognition events.
Acupuncture - How it Works
Acupuncture utilizes the capacity of the mind to sense combinatorial patterns.
Daniel Amen
How he links brain images to behavioral problems is inexplicable to many scientists.
Determinism vs Free Will
Free will loses in the determinism vs free will debate.
Define Common Sense
Science cannot clearly define common sense.
Intuitive Decision Making
Intuition can hand over control to fear, or make wise decisions.
Organ Transplants
Behavior transfer after organ transplants.
The Limbic System
The limbic system makes the behavioral choices of the human mind.
Artificial Intelligence
The AI disadvantage
AI lacks the real tools needed to succeed. It has one now!
Uncertainty & Expert Systems
Uncertainty can assist Expert Systems to diagnose problems.
Future Computers And Robotics
The Evolution Of Computers
The next stage is pattern recognition, leading to true artificial intelligence.
Robots In Our Future
They will, one day, be able to read and understand this article.
Kurzweil Singularity
Singularity will not be the end of human understanding.
Watson Computer - Finally, Strong AI!
UIMA, a program that can read and understand this article.
A View Of Management
Motivation Techniques
Motivation techniques should be humane and help people to achieve excellence.
Stress Free Career Success
Stress free career success is possible even if you are not a millionaire.
Practice Love and Compassion
Practice love and compassion as your life strategy and flow with the tide of nature.
NLP For Dummies
NLP is for dummies.
Living In The Now
A way of blocking out bad thoughts and finding joy.
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